Every seven hours, on average, a person in Virginia is killed by a gun, according to a Johns Hopkins School of Public Health analysis. Between 2014 and 2023, Virginia’s overall gun death rate increased by 34 percent, rising to 14.19 deaths per 100,000 people.
Yet for years, Virginia’s legislature struggled to enact laws to protect residents from gun violence. Former Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, vetoed more than 40 gun reform bills between 2022 and 2026.
In January 2026, however, Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, was sworn in as governor. A few months later, she signed a package of gun violence prevention bills into law. One of those laws, SB 749, makes it a misdemeanor to manufacture, sell, purchase, or transfer “assault firearms,” which the law defines as semiautomatic centerfire rifles or pistols with magazines that can hold more than 15 rounds. Violations are punishable by up to one year in prison and a $2,500 fine.
On July 1, 2026, Virginia’s ban was supposed to finally take effect. Public health researchers celebrated SB 749 and the other gun reform laws as long-awaited, evidence-backed solutions to America’s uniquely deadly problem.
But another life-threatening problem remained: the conservative legal movement. At least nine local prosecutors in the reddest parts of the state put out statements calling the ban unconstitutional, and declared they would not prosecute anyone accused of violating it. Gun activist groups filed at least five separate lawsuits in state and federal courts, arguing that the ban violates the Virginia Constitution and the U.S. Constitution. At least two state trial courts have issued preliminary orders that prevent Virginia officials from enforcing the law while the cases are ongoing.
Then, on July 1, President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice sued Virginia, too. The complaint was filed by the DOJ’s newly established “Second Amendment Section,” which is housed in the Civil Rights Division (as if gun owners are some kind of historically marginalized group). The DOJ filing alleges that “tens of millions of law-abiding Americans” own AR-15-style weapons, and “there is no historical tradition of banning arms in common use.” So, the federal government contends, Virginia’s law fails the history-based constitutionality test that the Supreme Court created in 2022.
The Trump administration seems to be feeling good about its likelihood of success. On Wednesday, July 8, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon predicted that the Supreme Court will “make it explicitly clear” during its upcoming term that the government cannot constitutionally restrict the buying and selling of AR-15s.
Unfortunately, she has good reason to feel so confident. Last year, when the Court declined to hear a challenge to a Maryland ban on AR-15s, Justice Clarence Thomas penned an irritated dissent, writing that lower courts “appear bent on distorting this Court’s Second Amendment precedents” and that he “cannot see how” AR-15s fall outside the Constitution’s protections. Justices Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito also noted their dissents.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh did not dissent, but he did author a statement expressing his belief that there is a “strong argument” that AR-15s are protected under the Second Amendment. And while Kavanaugh wasn’t as desperate as Thomas to decide the issue right away, he said that the Court “should and presumably will address the AR-15 issue soon, in the next Term or two.”
Kavanaugh recognized that he could afford to be choosy. Around a dozen states and municipalities have laws restricting AR-15-style firearms. The Supreme Court’s ever-expanding view of the Second Amendment poses a clear threat to those laws, and encourages any number of weapons enthusiasts to try their luck in court. Basically, the Republican justices are free to pick their favorite among the many lawsuits they invite, and to continue to reshape the law as they see fit.
Last week, sure enough, the Court made its pick, deciding to hear a challenge to assault weapons bans in Connecticut and Chicago. As a result, by this time next year, the Court could be handing down an opinion declaring that the Founding Fathers wanted you to have a semiautomatic rifle capable of mowing down dozens of people.
States like Virginia are passing laws to keep their residents safe from military-style weapons. Because of the conservative legal movement, those laws are now in danger, as are the people those laws aim to protect.
